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5 Things to Know Today: Oil Surges, Tariffs Land Tomorrow, Your Gas Tax Break Survives

  Monday, September 7, 2026 — Labour Day | Canadian Money Brief Markets are closed for the holiday, but the week ahead is loaded. Here are five things worth knowing before you head back to your desk tomorrow. 1. Oil Hits a Five-Week High as the Iran Conflict Escalates Crude climbed to $92.06 US/barrel on Saturday — up 17.75% over the past month and nearly 48% year over year — after Iran and the United States exchanged missile strikes this week. Israel's defence minister has threatened "crippling" attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, the EU has formally joined the US-led sanctions campaign, and US Vice President JD Vance said Washington won't hold peace talks until Iran stops targeting ships in the Strait of Hormuz. What it means for you: Even with the federal gas tax break extended (see #4), pump prices track the price of crude itself. If your tank's getting low, filling up early this week may beat whatever the Strait of Hormuz situation does to prices by...
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Bank of Canada Expected to Maintain Rates This Week, with First Cut Anticipated in June

 

The Bank of Canada is poised to keep its key overnight rate unchanged this week, as it continues to assess cooling inflation trends. However, the prospect of its first interest rate cut in four years looms on the horizon, with market speculation suggesting it could arrive as early as June.

Canada’s inflation, including core measures tracked by the central bank, has eased from a peak of 8.1% in June 2022. Additionally, the recent labor force survey revealed weaknesses in the job market. Despite these indicators, the central bank faces a delicate balancing act. While a rate cut could further stimulate consumer spending, it also risks fueling a rally in housing prices—a critical component that has driven inflation in the country.

An immigration-driven population surge has led to an unprecedented housing shortage in Canada. First-time home buyers and renters eagerly await opportunities to enter the market as borrowing costs decline from a 22-year peak. The central bank’s decision will significantly impact these dynamics.

Money markets have been increasingly betting on a 25 basis-point rate cut in June, with the current chances hovering around 78%. A rate cut in July is fully priced in, while April is expected to be a hold by the bank. Economists are aligned with market expectations, with over 70% anticipating the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut in June.

Governor Tiff Macklem has emphasized the need for caution. While the central bank aims to keep inflation within its 2% target range, Macklem has stated that it is still too early to consider a rate cut. The bank awaits further signs of underlying easing inflation before making any decisive moves.

In summary, the Bank of Canada’s upcoming monetary policy decision on April 10 will be closely watched. As the economy navigates uncertainties, the timing of the first rate cut remains a pivotal question. Whether it occurs in June or July, the central bank’s actions will shape Canada’s economic landscape in the coming months.



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