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5 Things to Know Today — Oil Diplomacy, TSX Rally, Carney at UNGA, Bond Yields, Canada's AI Gap (Sept. 23, 2026)

  Wednesday, September 23, 2026  |  MoneySavings.ca Oil is pulling back. The TSX is rebounding. Carney is talking deals in New York. And two under-the-radar stories — bond yields creeping up and a warning about Canada's AI ambitions — could quietly reshape your finances. Here's what matters today. 01 of 05 Oil Drops Below $92 as US–Iran Talks Begin at the UN WTI crude pulled back toward $90 per barrel Wednesday — its lowest level since early September — as diplomacy replaced missiles at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff spent three hours in shuttle talks with Iranian officials on the UNGA sidelines, just hours after President Trump threatened Iran with "annihilation" in his address to the General Assembly. Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US agreed to ease its naval blockade. Brent settled down roughly 3–4%, snapping five days of decline but still elevated from pre-conflic...
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Bank of Canada Expected to Maintain Rates This Week, with First Cut Anticipated in June

 

The Bank of Canada is poised to keep its key overnight rate unchanged this week, as it continues to assess cooling inflation trends. However, the prospect of its first interest rate cut in four years looms on the horizon, with market speculation suggesting it could arrive as early as June.

Canada’s inflation, including core measures tracked by the central bank, has eased from a peak of 8.1% in June 2022. Additionally, the recent labor force survey revealed weaknesses in the job market. Despite these indicators, the central bank faces a delicate balancing act. While a rate cut could further stimulate consumer spending, it also risks fueling a rally in housing prices—a critical component that has driven inflation in the country.

An immigration-driven population surge has led to an unprecedented housing shortage in Canada. First-time home buyers and renters eagerly await opportunities to enter the market as borrowing costs decline from a 22-year peak. The central bank’s decision will significantly impact these dynamics.

Money markets have been increasingly betting on a 25 basis-point rate cut in June, with the current chances hovering around 78%. A rate cut in July is fully priced in, while April is expected to be a hold by the bank. Economists are aligned with market expectations, with over 70% anticipating the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut in June.

Governor Tiff Macklem has emphasized the need for caution. While the central bank aims to keep inflation within its 2% target range, Macklem has stated that it is still too early to consider a rate cut. The bank awaits further signs of underlying easing inflation before making any decisive moves.

In summary, the Bank of Canada’s upcoming monetary policy decision on April 10 will be closely watched. As the economy navigates uncertainties, the timing of the first rate cut remains a pivotal question. Whether it occurs in June or July, the central bank’s actions will shape Canada’s economic landscape in the coming months.



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