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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...

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Market Resilience Amid Rising Yields and Positive Earnings

 

In a display of resilience, the S&P 500 closed marginally higher after a session marked by volatility, as investors navigated the dual forces of climbing Treasury yields and encouraging corporate earnings, particularly from tech behemoths.

  • Treasury Yields Climb: An auction of $70 billion in five-year U.S. Treasury notes drove yields higher, influencing equity markets. The 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.6459%.
  • Tech Giants’ Earnings: Investors’ attention was captured by earnings reports from major technology companies. Meta Platforms saw a dip in after-hours trading, while Microsoft and Alphabet are poised to report later in the week.
  • Tesla’s Surge: Tesla’s stock leapt by 12% as plans to increase production and introduce more affordable models outweighed its weaker quarterly results.
  • Economic Indicators Awaited: Markets are now looking ahead to the first quarter GDP data and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which could signal the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.

Investors remain cautious yet optimistic as they parse through the latest financial data, seeking signs of stability in a fluctuating economic landscape.

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