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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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China Warns 'No One Will Win a Trade War' After Trump's Tariff Threat

 

 China has issued a stern warning to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump following his announcement of a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. The Chinese Embassy in Washington emphasized that "no one will win a trade war," highlighting the mutual benefits of U.S.-China economic and trade cooperation.

Trump's proposed tariffs are part of his broader strategy to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl. He stated that these tariffs would remain until China takes significant measures to halt the flow of drugs into the United States.

Chinese officials have pushed back against these claims, pointing to recent efforts to curb the export of fentanyl precursors and other narcotics-related measures. The embassy spokesperson, Liu Pengyu, reiterated that the idea of China knowingly allowing fentanyl precursors to flow into the U.S. runs counter to facts and reality.

As tensions escalate, the global community watches closely, aware that a trade war between the world's two largest economies could have far-reaching consequences.



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