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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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Stock Market Pauses Near Records Ahead of Key Inflation Data

                                       

US stocks paused near record highs on Wednesday as investors awaited a crucial inflation report. The S&P 500 futures (ES=F) and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were little changed, coming off fresh all-time highs. Meanwhile, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fell 0.3%.

The market is on edge as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is set to be released. Economists expect the "core" PCE, which excludes food and energy, to have risen to 2.8% in October from 2.7% in September. A print matching those expectations could dampen hopes for a rate cut in December.

Investors are also keeping an eye on updates on third-quarter GDP, durable goods data, and initial jobless claims. The mood is somewhat muted as the market winds down for the Thanksgiving holiday, with markets set to close early on Friday.

On the corporate front, Dell (DELL) shares plunged over 10% after quarterly revenue fell short amid declining PC demand. Peer HP (HPQ) also saw its stock drop 8% post-earnings. Automakers General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) were hit hard by Trump's tariff threats, with GM losing 9% and Ford dropping 3%.

As the market awaits the inflation data, the question remains: will inflation have stalled, as some officials believe, or will it continue to rise, complicating the Fed's path forward?




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