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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Stock Market Pauses Near Records Ahead of Key Inflation Data

                                       

US stocks paused near record highs on Wednesday as investors awaited a crucial inflation report. The S&P 500 futures (ES=F) and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were little changed, coming off fresh all-time highs. Meanwhile, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fell 0.3%.

The market is on edge as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is set to be released. Economists expect the "core" PCE, which excludes food and energy, to have risen to 2.8% in October from 2.7% in September. A print matching those expectations could dampen hopes for a rate cut in December.

Investors are also keeping an eye on updates on third-quarter GDP, durable goods data, and initial jobless claims. The mood is somewhat muted as the market winds down for the Thanksgiving holiday, with markets set to close early on Friday.

On the corporate front, Dell (DELL) shares plunged over 10% after quarterly revenue fell short amid declining PC demand. Peer HP (HPQ) also saw its stock drop 8% post-earnings. Automakers General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) were hit hard by Trump's tariff threats, with GM losing 9% and Ford dropping 3%.

As the market awaits the inflation data, the question remains: will inflation have stalled, as some officials believe, or will it continue to rise, complicating the Fed's path forward?




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