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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Canada's Inflation Rate Cools to 1.9% in November


Canada's annual inflation rate slowed to 1.9% in November, down from 2% in October. This slight decrease was driven by a broad-based slowdown in prices, particularly in travel tours and mortgage interest costs. The consumer price index remained unchanged on a monthly basis.

Economists had anticipated the inflation rate to hold steady at 2%, but the data showed a more significant deceleration. The Bank of Canada, which has been working to control inflation, will consider this data in its upcoming rate decision on January 29.

The cooling inflation rate is a positive sign for the Canadian economy, which has been facing challenges this year. The central bank has already cut interest rates by 175 basis points since June to stimulate growth.



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