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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Trump Reaffirms 25% Tariffs, Initiates Comprehensive Trade Policy Review

 

In a bold move, President Donald Trump has reiterated his commitment to imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over drug trafficking and border security. This announcement comes as part of a broader executive order aimed at reviewing and potentially overhauling U.S. trade policies.

The executive order, signed on Monday, directs federal agencies to assess the impact of current trade agreements on American workers and agricultural producers. It also calls for public consultations in preparation for the scheduled 2026 review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). The order sets an April 1 deadline for these assessments and other trade policy reviews.

Trump's renewed focus on tariffs and trade policy has sparked a range of reactions. While some experts argue that these measures could protect American jobs and industries, others warn of potential negative impacts on consumer prices and international relations. The Canadian government has already expressed its concerns, emphasizing that such tariffs could harm both economies.

As the April 1 deadline approaches, the U.S. trade representative will be tasked with making recommendations regarding the country's participation in CUSMA and addressing any identified trade imbalances. This comprehensive review marks a significant step in Trump's "America First" trade strategy, which aims to prioritize national security and economic interests.



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