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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Liberal Leadership Candidates Prepare for First Debate

Tonight, the candidates vying to become the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada will face off in the first of two live debates. With just two weeks remaining until the winner is announced and two days until voting begins, this debate is a crucial opportunity for Liberal supporters to see the candidates together.

The four remaining candidates are former central banker Mark Carney, former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, former House leader Karina Gould, and former MP Frank Baylis. The party disqualified former Ontario MP Ruby Dhalla on Friday, alleging she broke the rules, though she has filed an appeal for reinstatement.

The debate will be moderated by former TVA-Québec anchor Pierre Jobin and will be conducted in French. The winner of the race will replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and potentially as prime minister, with an election expected soon after.

Mark Carney, considered the front-runner, has promised to balance the government's operational budget within three years while increasing spending on investments that grow the economy and create jobs. Chrystia Freeland has emphasized her connection to people who "work with their hands" and contribute to Canada's economy. Karina Gould has focused on bringing the party back to its grassroots for the next generation, while Frank Baylis has highlighted his experience in growing businesses.

The English-language debate is scheduled for Tuesday, also in Montreal, and will be moderated by former CBC host Hannah Thibedeau. Advance voting for party members opens on Wednesday, and the winner will be named on March 9.



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