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Bond Yields Are Nearing 5%: What It Means for Your Mortgage and HELOC

  Published September 11, 2026 Something is happening in the bond market this week that matters more to your wallet than the daily swings in the TSX. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed in on 5% on Friday — 4.95% , its highest level since 2023 and approaching territory not seen since 2007 — after climbing 18 basis points in a single week. Canadian bond yields have followed the same path: the 10-year Government of Canada bond hit its highest level in over two years earlier this month, and the 5-year bond — the one that actually sets your fixed mortgage rate — has drifted up to roughly 3.41%, about a quarter-point higher than it was a month ago. If you're renewing a mortgage, shopping for a HELOC, or just trying to figure out whether now is the moment to lock in, here's what's actually going on and what it means for your payments. Why bond yields, not the Bank of Canada, are driving fixed rates right now It's a common mix-up: people watch the Bank of Canada...
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Tariff Shock Ripples: TSX Futures Plunge as Global Markets Sell Off


TSX futures joined a broader global selloff on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, set to take effect Tuesday. The measures include a 25% levy on most Canadian goods—with energy products facing a lower 10% rate—and have spurred widespread investor anxiety about the potential for a full-blown trade war.

Early trading saw March futures on the S&P/TSX index drop by about 1.3%, as markets reacted swiftly to the news. The tariffs have unsettled investors, prompting a flight to safer assets such as the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, while equity positions were pared off amid fears that the tariffs could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth. Global indices from Europe to Asia have also been pressured, with significant selloffs in major markets.

In response to Trump’s announcement, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has vowed swift retaliatory measures, unveiling plans for tariffs on roughly C$155 billion worth of U.S. goods. The escalation in trade tensions is likely to disrupt supply chains further, affecting sectors from automotive to energy, and could even pave the way for prolonged economic uncertainty.

Amid the turmoil, some corporate activity continues to move forward. For example, Brookfield Asset Management recently completed a $1.7 billion acquisition in the electric heat trace systems sector—a sign that while markets are volatile, business fundamentals continue to drive major transactions.

As investors digest the unfolding trade conflict, many caution that further tariff escalations could lead to a cascade of economic challenges, including increased consumer prices and potential recessions in affected regions.

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