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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...

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Tariffs, Trade & Ties: Modi’s Diplomatic ‘Gift’ to Trump

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Washington with a well-calculated strategy aimed at strengthening the U.S.-India relationship while averting new tariff threats from the Trump administration. In a visit marked by a series of high-level meetings, Modi is expected to offer concessions ranging from increased purchases of U.S. defense equipment—including combat vehicles and jet engines—to greater imports of liquefied natural gas and American agricultural products.

The Indian leader’s visit comes at a critical juncture. Trump, still in the early days of his presidency, has been vocally critical of India’s high tariffs—often branding the country as a “tariff king”—and has indicated plans for reciprocal measures that could affect American consumers and global trade balances. In response, New Delhi has made adjustments, reducing duties on select goods such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles and opening doors to deeper negotiations on key sectors like electronics, medical supplies, and chemicals.

Both leaders appear to be leveraging their established rapport—built during Modi’s previous interactions in Washington—to navigate these contentious issues. While Trump is looking to reshape trade dynamics and bolster U.S. economic interests, Modi’s visit is equally focused on cementing a strategic partnership that balances economic imperatives with broader geopolitical concerns, especially in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

This diplomatic engagement highlights the complex interplay of trade, tariff negotiations, and strategic alliances at a time when both nations are seeking to recalibrate their relationship amidst global economic uncertainties.


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