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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Alberta Independence Rally Sparks Debate at Legislature

 

Hundreds of Albertans gathered at the Alberta Legislature in Edmonton on Saturday to rally in support of separating from Canada. The demonstration, fueled by frustration over federal policies and the recent Liberal election victory, saw participants waving Alberta flags and even some displaying U.S. flags. 

Premier Danielle Smith’s government recently proposed legislation that would lower the threshold for holding a referendum, making it easier for citizens to push for a vote on secession. While Smith has not explicitly endorsed separation, the move has emboldened those advocating for Alberta’s independence. 

The rally was met with opposition from Indigenous groups, who argued that separation would violate treaty agreements. Piikani Nation Chief Troy Knowlton emphasized that Alberta does not have the authority to interfere with or negate treaties, reinforcing the complexity of the issue. 

As tensions rise, the debate over Alberta’s future within Canada continues to unfold, with both supporters and critics making their voices heard.


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