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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Western Discontent Rises Following Liberal Election Victory

In the wake of the recent Liberal election victory, political tensions in Western Canada have intensified. Many Albertans and Saskatchewanians feel increasingly alienated from Ottawa, citing concerns over federal policies that they believe undermine their economic interests. 

Premier Danielle Smith has been vocal about the need for a "reset" in relations between Alberta and the federal government. She has called on Prime Minister Mark Carney to address key issues, including energy development and emissions regulations, warning that failure to do so could lead to a national unity crisis. 

The sentiment of Western alienation is not new, but recent political developments have reignited discussions about secession. Some groups are advocating for a referendum on Western independence, arguing that the region contributes more to Canada’s economy than it receives in return. 

As the new government settles in, the challenge will be to bridge the growing divide between Ottawa and the West. Whether Carney can successfully engage Western leaders and address their concerns remains to be seen, but the stakes for national unity have never been higher.

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