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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...

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Escalation in the Gulf: A Defining Moment in Trump’s Foreign Policy

In a move that reverberated across global capitals, the Trump administration authorized military strikes on Iranian assets, marking one of the most consequential and high-stakes decisions of his presidency. The action followed mounting tensions in the Gulf region, fueled by accusations that Tehran had been behind attacks on oil tankers and U.S. surveillance drones.

The strikes, though limited in scope, carried profound implications. They underscored President Trump’s unpredictable approach to international conflicts—eschewing prolonged military campaigns while simultaneously projecting strength. Critics argue this gamble risked spiraling into a broader conflict, destabilizing an already volatile region and drawing the U.S. deeper into Middle Eastern power struggles.

Supporters, on the other hand, viewed the strikes as a necessary assertion of American resolve in the face of escalating provocation. The episode crystalized the administration’s approach: heavy on deterrence, light on diplomacy, and deeply reliant on the president’s instinct-driven decision-making.

Whether the move succeeded in altering Tehran’s calculus remains uncertain. But one thing is clear—this marked a pivotal chapter in the Trump administration’s legacy on the world stage.


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