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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Khamenei’s Inner Circle Diminishes Amid Israeli Strikes

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is facing an unprecedented challenge as his closest military and security advisers have been systematically eliminated by Israeli airstrikes. The loss of key figures, including Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami and aerospace chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh, has left significant gaps in Iran’s strategic decision-making.  

Khamenei, known for his cautious yet firm leadership, now finds himself increasingly isolated, with fewer trusted voices to guide him through escalating tensions. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has reportedly stepped into a more prominent role, fueling speculation about succession plans.  

The situation raises concerns about potential miscalculations in Iran’s defense strategy, as the absence of seasoned advisers could lead to hasty or ill-informed decisions. With Israel continuing its precision strikes, Khamenei’s ability to maintain control over Iran’s military and political landscape is being tested like never before.  


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