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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Tehran in Turmoil as Residents Flee Following Trump’s Urgent Warning


The streets of Tehran are rapidly emptying as residents heed an urgent warning from U.S. President Donald Trump, who called for the immediate evacuation of the Iranian capital amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. 

Trump’s statement, posted on his Truth Social platform, emphasized that “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon” and urged the city’s nearly 10 million residents to leave before it was “too late”. His remarks came as Israel intensified its airstrikes on Tehran, targeting key infrastructure and military sites. 

Reports indicate that major roads leading out of Tehran are clogged with traffic, as families scramble to find safety. The city’s historic Grand Bazaar has shut down, an unusual move that underscores the severity of the situation. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities insist that “everything is under control”, though no official evacuation order has been issued. 

The international community is closely monitoring the crisis, with leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations calling for de-escalation while reaffirming their stance that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons. Trump, who left the G7 summit early to return to Washington, has denied reports that he is working on a ceasefire, stating that his focus is on something “much bigger”. 

As uncertainty grips Tehran, residents face difficult decisions about whether to stay or flee. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of this rapidly evolving conflict.

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