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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Trump Blasts Israel and Iran Over Ceasefire Breach Amid Renewed Tensions

In a fiery rebuke Tuesday morning, U.S. President Donald Trump condemned both Israel and Iran for violating a ceasefire agreement he had announced just hours earlier. Speaking to reporters before departing for a NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump expressed frustration, saying, “We have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the [expletive] they’re doing”.

The ceasefire, intended to halt a 12-day conflict, quickly unraveled as Iran reportedly launched missile strikes into Israeli territory. In response, Israel’s military leadership vowed to retaliate, accusing Tehran of a “severe violation” of the truce.

Trump took to his social media platform, Truth Social, to urge restraint, posting in all caps: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” He later added that he was “not happy with Israel” and would attempt to de-escalate the situation.

Despite initial statements from both sides indicating compliance, the ceasefire appears to have collapsed under mutual distrust and continued hostilities. As the region braces for further escalation, Trump’s diplomatic balancing act faces its toughest test yet.

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