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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Trump Halts U.S.-Canada Trade Talks Over Digital Services Tax Dispute

In a dramatic escalation of trade tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump announced Friday that his administration is terminating all trade negotiations with Canada, citing Ottawa’s new digital services tax as the catalyst for the decision.

The tax, which imposes a 3% levy on revenues earned from digital services such as online advertising, social media platforms, and the sale of user data, is set to take effect on June 30. It targets large tech firms with significant Canadian user bases—many of which are American giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon.

Calling the tax “a direct and blatant attack on our country,” Trump posted on Truth Social that Canada is “a very difficult country to trade with” and accused it of mimicking the European Union’s approach to taxing digital services.

The move threatens to disrupt a trade relationship valued at over $760 billion annually. Trump also warned that new tariffs on Canadian exports would be announced within a week, further straining economic ties between the two nations.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has yet to issue a formal response, but the decision is expected to have ripple effects across industries, particularly in technology, automotive, and energy sectors.

This latest development marks a sharp turn in U.S.-Canada relations, reigniting trade friction that had cooled in recent years.

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