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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Wall Street Rebounds: U.S. Stocks Hit Record Highs After Tariff Turmoil

In a dramatic turnaround, U.S. stock markets closed at all-time highs on Friday, just months after a steep plunge triggered by fears over escalating tariffs. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, surpassing its previous record set in February, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted gains of 0.5% and 1%, respectively.

This milestone marks a swift recovery from a nearly 20% drop earlier in the year, when uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s trade policies rattled investors. The rebound was fueled by easing tensions with China, a preliminary trade deal, and signs of resilience in consumer spending despite inflationary pressures.

Nike led the charge with a 15.2% surge, even as it warned of tariff-related challenges. Meanwhile, oil prices stabilized and inflation data came in largely as expected, helping to calm market nerves.

Though concerns remain—particularly around ongoing trade negotiations and inflation—the market’s resilience has offered investors a renewed sense of optimism. As one strategist put it, “Investors will breathe a sigh of relief”.

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