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BoC Holds at 2.25%: What the Rate Decision (and Rising Gas Prices) Mean for Your Wallet

  Thursday, July 16, 2026 Sixth consecutive hold. A weaker 2026 growth forecast. And inflation that's running hotter because of gas prices, not the usual suspects. Here's what actually changes for you. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, exactly as markets expected. No surprise there. What's more interesting is why it held, and what it revealed about where the economy — and your bills — are headed next. This was the sixth straight hold since the Bank finished its easing cycle back in October. But buried in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report were a few numbers worth your attention. The Numbers That Matter Overnight Rate 2.25% (unchanged) Prime Rate (typical) 4.45% 2026 GDP Growth Forecast 0.7% (cut from 1.2%) 2027 / 2028 Growth Forecast 1.8% each year May CPI Inflation 3.2% Inflation Excluding Gasoline 2.2% Unemployment Rate (June) 6.5% Next Rate Decision September 2, 2026 Why Gas Prices Are Driving This Decision Here's the twist in th...
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Bank of Canada Freezes Rates as Trump’s Tariff Threat Looms Over Economy

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Amid Tariff Turmoil

In a widely anticipated move, the Bank of Canada has opted to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive time, as trade tensions with the United States intensify ahead of an August 1 tariff deadline.

Economists had unanimously predicted the hold, citing mixed economic signals: while employment remains strong, core inflation continues to hover above the Bank’s target. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized that monetary policy cannot offset the impact of prolonged trade conflicts, reiterating the Bank’s commitment to price stability for Canadians.

The decision comes as President Trump threatens sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods, including a potential 35% blanket rate and sector-specific levies on steel, aluminum, and autos. These measures have injected uncertainty into business planning and consumer confidence, with many firms scaling back hiring and investment.

Despite the hold, analysts warn that further rate cuts may be on the horizon if trade disruptions deepen. The Bank’s cautious stance reflects a wait-and-see approach, balancing inflation risks with economic fragility.


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