The Fed Just Hiked Rates. Here's What It Means for Your Canadian Mortgage.

 

Canada’s inflation uptick in June has effectively ruled out a July rate cut, according to economists and market analysts. The Consumer Price Index rose to 1.9% year-over-year, up from 1.7% in May, driven by higher prices for durable goods like vehicles and furniture, and a smaller decline in gasoline prices.

Core inflation metrics — CPI-median and CPI-trim — remained stubbornly high at 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively, well above the Bank of Canada’s comfort zone. This persistence in underlying inflation, coupled with a surprisingly strong June jobs report showing 83,000 new positions added, has led analysts to conclude that a rate cut at the July 30 meeting is off the table.

BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter summed up the sentiment: “Today’s result gives the Bank of Canada almost nothing to justify a rate cut in July. If the solid employment report was the icing on the cake for that decision, this is the cherry on top”.

Market expectations have shifted dramatically. The probability of a rate cut has plunged to just 5%, down from 27% before the jobs data and 14% before the CPI release. Economists now suggest that unless there’s a sharp economic downturn or a significant drop in core inflation, the earliest possible rate cut may be in September — and even that is uncertain.

 For now, the Bank of Canada appears poised to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75%, maintaining a cautious stance amid persistent inflation and global trade uncertainties.