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Markets Slip as Investors Bet on Extended U.S.–Iran Ceasefire

  Stocks Edge Lower as Investors Hope U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Will Hold Stocks drifted lower today as markets balanced cautious optimism over a potential extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire with persistent geopolitical and inflation concerns. Recent trading sessions have shown that even modest signs of diplomatic progress can meaningfully shift investor sentiment. Asian and U.S. markets rallied earlier this week on hopes that Washington and Tehran would continue negotiations, helping unwind some of the war-driven risk premiums that had pushed oil and volatility higher. Despite the pullback, investors remain hopeful that the ceasefire—currently set to expire soon—will be extended, giving negotiators more time to work toward a longer-term agreement. Reports indicate both sides are considering adding another two weeks to the pause, a move that has already helped push Brent crude below the recent peak of nearly US$120 per barrel. Lower oil prices have eased pressure on inflation expecta...
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Efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza remain precarious following a high-profile meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. While both leaders expressed optimism about the potential for a 60-day truce, fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas continue to stall progress.

During the closed-door dinner, Netanyahu presented Trump with a letter nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his role in recent joint military operations and his push for regional diplomacy. Trump, meanwhile, reiterated his belief that negotiations were “going along very well,” and suggested that Hamas was open to ending the 21-month conflict.

However, the path to peace remains riddled with obstacles. Hamas has demanded a permanent end to hostilities and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, while Netanyahu insists on the dismantling of Hamas and its leadership going into exile—terms the group has rejected.

Indirect talks in Doha between Israeli and Hamas negotiators have yet to yield a breakthrough, though U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to join the discussions later this week in hopes of bridging the divide.

Inside Gaza, the humanitarian crisis deepens. Over 57,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began in October 2023, and nearly half a million face imminent famine, according to UN estimates. Israeli strikes continue, with dozens killed in recent days, further complicating ceasefire efforts.

Despite the fanfare surrounding the White House meeting, the future of Gaza remains uncertain. As regional and international actors push for a resolution, the coming days may prove pivotal in determining whether diplomacy can overcome entrenched hostilities.

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