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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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Canada's Job Market Stumbles in July: Youth Hit Hardest

 

Canada’s labour market took a step back in July, shedding approximately 41,000 jobs, according to Statistics Canada. Despite the decline, the national unemployment rate held steady at 6.9%, suggesting that the number of job seekers remained relatively unchanged.

The losses were concentrated in full-time positions and the private sector, with young Canadians aged 15 to 24 bearing the brunt—losing 34,000 jobs amid a challenging summer employment landscape. This marks the lowest youth employment rate since the late 1990s, excluding pandemic years.

Sector-wise, the information, culture, and recreation industries led the downturn, followed by construction. However, there were bright spots: the manufacturing sector posted modest gains for the second consecutive month, and transportation and warehousing added 26,000 jobs—their first increase since January.

Regionally, Alberta and British Columbia saw notable declines, while Saskatchewan bucked the trend with a modest gain and the lowest unemployment rate in the country at 5.0%.

Despite the job losses, average hourly wages rose 3.3% year-over-year to $36.16, offering a silver lining for those still employed.


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