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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...

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Canada’s Youth Job Market Stalls as Summer Ends, Leaving Many Struggling


As the summer of 2025 winds down, young Canadians are facing one of the toughest seasonal job markets in over a decade. The national youth unemployment rate has climbed to 14.6%, the highest since 2010 outside of pandemic years. In Ontario, the figure is even more alarming at 15.8%, with returning university students seeing rates above 17%.

Experts point to a combination of factors: a slowdown in summer job postings—down 22% from last year—the lingering effects of pandemic-era disruptions, and the rapid adoption of AI and automation in entry-level roles. The influx of international students in recent years has also swelled the youth labour force, intensifying competition for limited positions.

For many, the struggle to secure work has meant shelving career-related ambitions in favour of part-time service jobs—or, in some cases, returning to school in hopes of improving future prospects. Economists warn that prolonged joblessness at the start of a career can have lasting effects on earnings, skills development, and mental health.

While analysts note that technological shifts have historically created new opportunities over time, the immediate outlook for young job seekers remains uncertain. For now, the “summer funk” shows no signs of lifting, and the chill could linger well into the fall.

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