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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Carney Condemns Trump’s Tariff Surge, Vows Economic Resilience

 


Canada Pushes Back as Trump Hikes Tariffs to 35%

Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed strong disappointment following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, citing concerns over fentanyl trafficking and border security.

Despite the hike, Carney emphasized that Canada remains committed to the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which still exempts most Canadian exports from the new tariffs. “The U.S. application of CUSMA means that the U.S. average tariff rate on Canadian goods remains one of its lowest for all of its trading partners,” Carney stated in a letter posted early Friday.

However, key sectors such as lumber, steel, aluminum, and automobiles are expected to feel the brunt of the increased duties. Carney pledged to protect Canadian jobs and industrial competitiveness through targeted investments and export diversification.

Trump’s executive order, signed Thursday night, also includes a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through third countries to bypass the new rate. The White House justified the move by accusing Canada of insufficient cooperation in curbing fentanyl flows, despite data showing Canada accounts for only 1% of U.S. fentanyl imports.

Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc is currently in Washington for negotiations, though no updates have been provided. Trump hinted at potential talks, saying, “It doesn’t mean that somebody doesn’t come along in four weeks and say we can make some kind of a deal”.

As tensions rise, Carney reaffirmed Canada’s commitment to border security and its broader economic strategy: “Canadians will be our own best customer... We can give ourselves more than any foreign government can ever take away”.

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