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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Market Mayhem: Weak Jobs Report and Tariffs Trigger Wall Street Sell-Off

 

Wall Street was rocked Friday as a disappointing U.S. jobs report and sweeping new tariffs sent shockwaves through financial markets. The S&P 500 plunged 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 486 points (1.1%), and the Nasdaq tumbled 2%—marking one of the worst trading days since May.

The Labor Department revealed that only 73,000 jobs were added in July, far below expectations. Even more alarming, revisions to May and June data erased 258,000 jobs, amplifying concerns about a slowing economy. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, further rattling investor confidence.

Adding fuel to the fire, President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on imports from 66 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, effective August 7. The move intensified fears of a global trade war and economic stagnation.

Bond markets responded sharply:

  • 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.39% to 4.22%
  • 2-year Treasury yield dropped from 3.94% to 3.71%

Investors now see an 85% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, up from just 40% the day before. While a cut could stimulate the economy, it risks stoking inflation, which already rose to 2.6% in June.

Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley summed up the mood: “What had looked like a Teflon labor market showed some scratches this morning, as tariffs continue to work their way through the economy”.

With recession fears mounting and policy uncertainty looming, markets are bracing for a volatile August.


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