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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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NATO Chiefs to Convene Amid Rising Pressure for Ukraine Security Guarantees

 

                                            lags wave outside the Alliance headquarters in Brussels

NATO military leaders are set to meet virtually on Wednesday, August 20, to deliberate on the alliance’s evolving support for Ukraine as the war with Russia grinds on. The meeting, convened by Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair of NATO’s Military Committee, will include top defense chiefs and a briefing from Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich.

The talks follow a flurry of high-level diplomacy, including a recent summit in Washington between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.S. President Donald Trump, and several European leaders. Discussions centered on a proposed framework of “Article 5-style” security guarantees, spearheaded by the French and British-led “Coalition of the Willing”.

While NATO as a whole is unlikely to commit troops due to Russian objections, individual member states are exploring bilateral commitments. Trump has made clear that U.S. troops will not be deployed to Ukraine, placing the onus on European allies such as France, Germany, and the U.K. to take the lead.

Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine’s own military strength and a robust package of American weapons—reportedly worth $90 billion—are key components of any future guarantees. As negotiations continue, NATO’s upcoming meeting is expected to shape the logistical and strategic contours of Western support for Kyiv in the months ahead.

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