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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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Trade Tensions Stall Canada’s Growth in Q2 2025

                                            A railway grain terminal in Alberta. 

Canada’s economy contracted sharply in the second quarter of 2025, underscoring the toll that escalating trade tensions have taken on the country’s growth. Statistics Canada reported a 1.6% annualized decline in real GDP, far steeper than the 0.5% drop economists had anticipated.

The slowdown was most pronounced in the spring, when tariff uncertainty disrupted exports and dampened business investment. June saw a 0.1% month-over-month GDP dip, while a preliminary estimate for July suggested only a modest 0.1% rebound.

The Bank of Canada had already projected a significant contraction for the quarter, citing the drag from U.S. tariffs and weaker global demand. Analysts note that further softness in the labour market could influence the central bank’s next interest rate decision.

The downturn follows a surprisingly strong first quarter, when GDP grew 2.2% as companies rushed to ship goods ahead of tariff deadlines. With trade negotiations still unresolved, economists warn that uncertainty could continue to weigh on Canada’s economic momentum into the second half of the year.

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