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Trade War Turbulence: Canada’s Q2 GDP Suffers Steepest Drop Since Pandemic
` A railway grain terminal in Alberta.
Canada’s economy contracted sharply in the second quarter of 2025, posting a 1.6% annualized decline — the steepest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic — as U.S. tariffs battered exports and dampened business investment. Statistics Canada reported that international shipments of passenger cars and light trucks plunged nearly 25%, while industrial machinery exports fell over 18%.
The downturn followed a temporary boost in Q1, when businesses rushed orders ahead of anticipated tariffs. Imports also fell, partly due to Canada’s retaliatory measures, but this was not enough to offset the export slump.
Despite the trade hit, household spending rose 4.5%, and housing activity remained resilient, offering some cushion to the economy. Still, the weak momentum heading into Q3 has left economists divided on whether the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates at its September meeting.
The data underscores the toll of escalating trade tensions with the U.S., Canada’s largest trading partner, and signals that while domestic demand shows strength, external headwinds could keep growth subdued in the months ahead.
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