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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Ukrainian Drone Strike Ignites Blaze at Russian Oil Refinery

                                                   Smoke and fire rise from an industrial facility, in Saratov.

In a bold escalation of its campaign to disrupt Russian military logistics, Ukraine's Armed Forces confirmed a drone strike on the Saratov oil refinery overnight on August 9–10. The refinery, located in Russia’s Saratov Oblast, is considered a key fuel infrastructure facility, supplying petroleum products to Russian forces engaged in the war against Ukraine.

According to Ukraine’s General Staff, the attack was carried out by the Unmanned Systems Forces in coordination with other defense units. The strike triggered multiple explosions and a significant fire at the refinery complex, which has an annual processing capacity of up to 7 million tonnes of oil.

Ukraine emphasized that such operations are part of a broader strategy to weaken Russia’s military and economic capabilities. “A just peace is closer with every target struck on the territory of the Russian Federation that is involved in its criminal war against Ukraine,” the General Staff stated.

The incident marks another chapter in the intensifying drone warfare between the two nations, as Ukraine continues to target strategic assets deep within Russian territory.


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