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5 Things to Know Today: Canada Enters Recession, Oil Slips on Iran Ceasefire Talk

Saturday, May 30, 2026 — Your quick-hit Canadian financial briefing for the day. 1.Canada Officially Meets the Definition of a Technical Recession Statistics Canada confirmed Friday that real GDP contracted 0.1% on an annualized basis in Q1 2026 — following a revised 1.0% drop in Q4 2025 . That's two straight quarters of negative growth, which meets the technical definition of a recession. The miss was a big one: economists had forecast growth of 1.5% . The main culprits were a surge in imports (up 2.9%, largely gold), declining business capital investment (down 0.7% — its fifth consecutive quarterly drop ), and weakness in resource extraction and construction. On a per-capita basis, GDP actually edged up 0.2% as Canada's population shrank for the second quarter in a row. Not everyone is ready to call it a full recession: some economists note that three of the four weak months were isolated, and early April data points to a sharp 0.4% rebound . Still, the numbers ...
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Canadian Job Market Falters as August Brings Unexpected Spike in Unemployment

 

                       Employment fell for both core-aged men and women in August, with steeper declines for men


Canada’s economy shed 65,500 jobs in August 2025, pushing the national unemployment rate to 7.1%, according to new data from Statistics Canada. This marks the highest rate in nearly a decade outside of the pandemic years, and it surpassed economists’ expectations of a modest rise to 7.0%.

Economists Caught Off Guard

Analysts had forecast a gain of 10,000 jobs for the month, but the sharp decline—especially among core-aged workers—suggests deeper structural issues. Employment dropped for both men and women aged 25 to 54, with men experiencing steeper losses.

Broader Economic Headwinds

The disappointing jobs report follows news that Canada’s economy contracted in Q2, weighed down by U.S. tariffs and global trade uncertainty. These pressures have dampened exports and added strain to domestic industries.

Long-Term Trends

CIBC economist Andrew Grantham noted that recent Labour Force Survey data has shown “wild swings,” with job gains in June followed by losses in July and August. He emphasized that while employment is rising on average, it’s not keeping pace with population growth.


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