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Loonie Slips to Six-Day Low as Rate Cut Odds Rise
The Canadian dollar weakened on Tuesday, touching its lowest level in nearly a week, as traders increasingly priced in the possibility of a Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cut later this month. The loonie fell 0.3% to 1.3790 against the U.S. dollar, after briefly hitting 1.3815 — its weakest intraday level since last Wednesday.
Market expectations for a 25-basis-point cut at the BoC’s September 17 policy meeting have climbed to around 50%, up from 40% before last week’s disappointing GDP data showed a sharper-than-expected economic contraction in the second quarter. The central bank last lowered rates in March, bringing its benchmark to 2.75%.
Global bond yields surged, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields nearing 5%, adding pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. However, the loonie’s decline was cushioned by a 2.5% jump in oil prices to $65.59 a barrel — a key Canadian export.
Analysts say the currency’s near-term direction will hinge on upcoming domestic employment data and whether the BoC signals a more aggressive easing path to support a slowing economy.
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