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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Loonie Slips to Six-Day Low as Rate Cut Odds Rise

 

The Canadian dollar weakened on Tuesday, touching its lowest level in nearly a week, as traders increasingly priced in the possibility of a Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cut later this month. The loonie fell 0.3% to 1.3790 against the U.S. dollar, after briefly hitting 1.3815 — its weakest intraday level since last Wednesday.

Market expectations for a 25-basis-point cut at the BoC’s September 17 policy meeting have climbed to around 50%, up from 40% before last week’s disappointing GDP data showed a sharper-than-expected economic contraction in the second quarter. The central bank last lowered rates in March, bringing its benchmark to 2.75%.

Global bond yields surged, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields nearing 5%, adding pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. However, the loonie’s decline was cushioned by a 2.5% jump in oil prices to $65.59 a barrel — a key Canadian export.

Analysts say the currency’s near-term direction will hinge on upcoming domestic employment data and whether the BoC signals a more aggressive easing path to support a slowing economy.

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