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Storm Clouds Over Forecasting: Canada’s Weather Service Faces Rising Strain Amid U.S. Cuts and Climate Extremes
A new independent assessment warns that Canada’s weather service is under mounting pressure as climate change fuels more extreme weather events and recent U.S. funding cuts threaten critical cross-border data sharing.
The report, prepared for Environment and Climate Change Canada by the Council of Canadian Academies, highlights the urgent need for a coordinated national flash flood warning system and stronger partnerships with European agencies to offset reduced access to U.S. resources. Significant cuts to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) could jeopardize Canada’s ability to monitor and forecast weather across vast regions, from the Arctic to the Great Lakes.
Canada’s own observation network, especially in the North, remains sparse, with weather stations sometimes hundreds of kilometres apart. This gap, combined with static funding for hydro-meteorological services over the past five years, leaves the system vulnerable as demand for accurate, timely warnings grows.
The report also notes that while artificial intelligence offers promise for sharper forecasts, it must be paired with proven physics-based models to avoid failures in unprecedented climate scenarios. Without strategic investment in infrastructure, data sovereignty, and modern forecasting tools, Canada risks falling behind in protecting communities from the escalating threats of extreme weather.
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