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TSX Hits Record High as Iran Deal Lifts Markets — Daily Update, June 16, 2026

Oil tumbles on Strait of Hormuz reopening framework. All eyes on the Federal Reserve as Kevin Warsh chairs his first policy meeting. Here is everything moving Canadian wallets today. Tuesday, June 16, 2026  |  MoneySavings.ca 🇨🇦 TSX — Another Record on the Books The S&P/TSX Composite closed at a fresh all-time high on Monday, June 15, topping 35,398 intraday before finishing near the upper end of its range. The index is now up more than 11% year-to-date , the second-best performance among major global indexes tracked through mid-June — behind only Japan's Nikkei (+31%). Monday's rally was broad-based, fuelled by a surge in risk appetite following the announcement of a U.S.–Iran peace framework over the weekend. Energy, financials, and materials all participated, though energy stocks gained somewhat less than the others as crude oil prices simultaneously fell sharply on the Strait of Hormuz reopening news — a rare case where the same headline pushed the index up and one ...
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Weak Jobs Data Sends BoC Rate Cut Odds Soaring to 90%

 

                                           Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem


The likelihood of a Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cut at its September 17 meeting has surged to 90%, according to market pricing, after a string of disappointing labour market data intensified concerns about the country’s economic momentum.

Canada’s job market showed fresh signs of strain, with recent reports revealing significant employment losses across multiple sectors, including manufacturing, construction, and retail. The July Labour Force Survey recorded a drop of 41,000 jobs, the largest monthly decline in seven years, while Statistics Canada’s payroll data pointed to broad-based weakness beyond tariff-impacted industries.

The soft labour readings come on the heels of a 1.6% annualized GDP contraction in the second quarter, driven by plunging exports and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.. Economists say the combination of slowing growth, rising unemployment, and building slack in the economy is creating strong pressure for the BoC to ease policy.

Some analysts now expect the central bank to kick off a rate-cutting cycle this month, with additional reductions possible before year-end. While a minority still argue for holding rates steady to assess inflation trends, markets are overwhelmingly betting that policymakers will act swiftly to support the weakening economy.

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