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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Bank of Canada Warns of Tepid Growth and Fragile Job Market Before Rate Call

                                                    Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem 


Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem signaled that Canada’s economy is set for only modest growth in the months ahead, while the labor market shows signs of strain. Speaking in Washington ahead of the central bank’s next interest rate decision, Macklem described the outlook as “soft,” citing weak business investment, sluggish exports, and uncertainty in hiring trends.

Recent data showed the economy contracted at an annualized pace of 1.6% in the second quarter, largely due to falling exports. While some rebound is expected in the latter half of the year, Macklem cautioned that growth will likely hover near 1%—below the economy’s potential.

On jobs, Macklem noted that despite a gain of more than 60,000 positions in September, the labor market remains fragile, with unemployment rising to 7.1% from 6.6% earlier this year. He characterized the employment picture as “volatile,” underscoring the challenges facing households and businesses.

The Bank of Canada has already cut its benchmark rate to 2.5% in September to counter slowing momentum. Policymakers now face a delicate balance: supporting growth without reigniting inflationary pressures.

As Macklem put it, restoring productivity and competitiveness will be key to lifting incomes and sustaining long-term prosperity.


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