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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Canada Weighs Submarine Future as Germany and Norway Push Joint Deal

German submarines, seen here at a German navy base in 2016, are among the country's main arms exports


Germany and Norway have launched a coordinated diplomatic effort in Ottawa to persuade Canada to join their joint submarine program, as the federal government narrows its options for replacing the Royal Canadian Navy’s aging Victoria-class fleet.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and his Norwegian counterpart Tore Sandvik met with Canadian officials this week, pitching the benefits of a trilateral partnership. They argued that Canada’s participation would allow the three NATO allies to pool shipyard resources, share parts and logistics, and even coordinate training and deployments across the Atlantic and into the Indo-Pacific.

Canada is currently considering proposals from Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean Co. for its next generation of submarines, with the first delivery expected by 2035. German and Norwegian officials stressed that joining their existing program would not only strengthen NATO’s collective maritime security but also streamline costs and ensure interoperability among allies.

The submarine procurement is one of Canada’s most significant defence investments in decades, with billions of dollars at stake and long-term implications for the country’s role in Arctic and North Atlantic security.


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