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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Ceasefire Under Strain as Israeli Airstrikes Hit Rafah

 

                                        Gaza truce falters: Hamas attacks Israeli troops in Rafah; IDF launches airstrikes.


The Israeli military confirmed on Sunday that it carried out airstrikes in the Rafah area of southern Gaza, citing what it described as a “blatant violation” of the fragile ceasefire by Hamas. According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), militants fired an anti-tank missile and opened fire on Israeli troops operating near Rafah, prompting retaliatory strikes on what the military said were Hamas positions.

Witnesses in Gaza reported hearing multiple explosions and heavy gunfire in Rafah and nearby Khan Younis. Local health officials said casualties were being assessed, though initial reports indicated at least two deaths in northern Gaza from related strikes.

The escalation comes just days after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect, raising hopes of easing tensions after months of violence. Both sides have since traded accusations of breaching the truce, with Hamas insisting it remains committed to the agreement and accusing Israel of undermining it.

The renewed hostilities highlight the fragility of the ceasefire and the challenges facing international mediators as they attempt to prevent a wider breakdown in Gaza.

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