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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Hope Amid Ruins: Israel and Hamas Agree to Ceasefire and Hostage Deal

 

A person wearing a mask depicting Donald Trump waves an Israeli flag as people celebrate after the US president announced that Israel and Hamas agreed on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire, at 'Hostages Square', in Tel Aviv.


After more than two years of devastating conflict, Israel and Hamas have reached a landmark ceasefire and hostage release agreement, hailed as the first step toward ending the war that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

The deal, brokered through indirect negotiations in Egypt and backed by international mediators including the United States and Qatar, outlines a phased process. Hamas has agreed to release the remaining Israeli hostages—around 20 believed to be alive—within 72 hours of the agreement’s ratification, in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that his cabinet would convene to approve the deal, while the Israeli army has begun preparing to withdraw troops from parts of Gaza in line with the agreement. The ceasefire is expected to take effect immediately after government approval, with humanitarian aid convoys poised to enter Gaza, where the UN has declared famine conditions.

The announcement sparked emotional scenes across the region. In Tel Aviv, families of hostages gathered in Hostages Square, waving flags and holding photos of loved ones. In Gaza, displaced residents expressed cautious relief, though many remain wary after previous ceasefires collapsed.

While the agreement is being celebrated as a breakthrough, questions remain about its durability. The deal forms only the first phase of a broader 20-point peace plan, which envisions Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the establishment of a transitional governing authority.

For now, the ceasefire offers a fragile but vital pause in a war that has left deep scars on both sides. Whether it can pave the way to lasting peace remains uncertain, but for families awaiting the return of loved ones, it marks a long-awaited glimmer of hope.


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