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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Ontario Pulls Anti-Tariff Ads After Trump Halts Trade Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump says he’s terminating all negotiations with Canada, blaming an anti-tariff ad that was broadcast to American audiences. 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has announced that the province will pause its controversial anti-tariff advertising campaign in the United States following a sharp backlash from President Donald Trump.

The ads, which aired during Major League Baseball World Series broadcasts, featured clips of former U.S. president Ronald Reagan warning against the dangers of tariffs. Trump denounced the campaign as “fake” and “egregious,” accusing Ontario of misrepresenting Reagan’s message. The Reagan Foundation also criticized the use of the footage, noting that permission had not been sought.

Trump’s anger over the ads led him to abruptly suspend Canada-U.S. trade negotiations, escalating tensions between Washington and Ottawa. In response, Ford said the campaign would be paused starting Monday to allow talks to resume.

While defending the ad’s message that tariffs harm both economies, Ford emphasized that Ontario’s priority is to restore dialogue and protect Canadian jobs. “Our intention was always to spark a conversation,” he said, “but we won’t let this stand in the way of trade discussions.”



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