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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...

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Trump Defends Tariffs as Carney Heads to Washington for High-Stakes Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump is doubling down on his tariff strategy ahead of a key meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Washington. Speaking Monday, Trump insisted his sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods are “working,” pointing to companies relocating operations to the United States as evidence of success.

Carney, making his second visit to the White House since becoming prime minister, is expected to press for relief from duties that have hit Canada’s steel, aluminum, auto, and lumber sectors. Ottawa has already made concessions, including dropping its digital services tax and scaling back retaliatory tariffs, but Trump has shown little sign of easing his stance.

The talks come as both countries prepare for the first joint review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) next year. Canadian officials say they are cautiously optimistic about progress on sector-specific tariffs, though observers warn that Trump views tariffs as central to his trade agenda and is unlikely to roll them back quickly.

For Carney, the challenge will be balancing domestic pressure to secure relief with the realities of negotiating with a U.S. president who sees tariffs as leverage rather than a liability.


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