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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...

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Turkey to Host Urgent Talks on Gaza Ceasefire Amid Fears of Renewed Violence

                                    Israeli military personnel operate on the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border

Turkey announced that it will host a high-level meeting in Istanbul on Monday to address the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and discuss next steps for stability in the region. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed that foreign ministers from several Muslim-majority countries will attend.

The gathering comes amid growing concerns that the current ceasefire may not hold, with discussions expected to focus on the creation of a Gaza stabilization force and broader efforts to ensure long-term peace. Fidan emphasized that the talks will evaluate how to move into a “second stage” of the peace process, which could involve international cooperation on security and humanitarian measures.

Countries invited to the meeting include Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Pakistan, and Indonesia, alongside Turkey. These states have been actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation and to explore frameworks for reconstruction and governance in Gaza.

The timing of the meeting underscores the delicate balance of the ceasefire, which has faced repeated challenges in recent weeks. While regional leaders have expressed cautious optimism, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled opposition to any role for Turkish security forces in Gaza, raising questions about the feasibility of proposed stabilization plans.

As the international community watches closely, Monday’s talks in Istanbul are expected to be a critical test of whether regional diplomacy can sustain the ceasefire and lay the groundwork for a more durable peace.

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