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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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U.S. Aid to Argentina Tied to Milei’s Political Future, Trump Warns

U.S. President Donald Trump points a finger as he welcomes Argentina's President Javier Milei at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., October 14, 2025. 

In a striking declaration during a White House meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei, U.S. President Donald Trump linked Washington’s financial support for Argentina to Milei’s political survival. Just days after approving a $20 billion bailout package, Trump stated bluntly: “If he loses, we’re gone.”

The warning came as Argentina prepares for crucial midterm legislative elections. Trump emphasized that U.S. backing hinges on Milei’s libertarian government maintaining power, saying his administration would not “waste time” if Milei’s party fails to secure victory.

The remarks rattled Argentine markets, which had initially responded positively to the bailout deal. The package, centered on a major currency swap between the U.S. dollar and the Argentine peso, was seen as a lifeline for the country’s struggling economy.

Trump’s intervention underscores the high stakes of Argentina’s upcoming elections and highlights Washington’s willingness to condition international support on political alignment. For Milei, the message was clear: his government’s future—and Argentina’s economic stability—are now deeply intertwined with U.S. expectations.


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