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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Beijing Tightens Pressure on Tokyo Amid Taiwan Dispute

                                           Japan's prime minister, Sanae Takaichi 


China has sharply escalated its diplomatic spat with Japan following remarks by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Tokyo could respond militarily if Beijing attacks Taiwan. The dispute, which erupted earlier this month, has quickly spilled into trade and travel, signaling Beijing’s intent to warn not only Tokyo but other nations considering involvement in Taiwan’s defense.

At the heart of the row are Takaichi’s comments that a Chinese assault on Taiwan could pose a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, thereby justifying collective self-defense. Beijing reacted furiously, lodging protests and warning Japan of “crushing” consequences if it intervenes militarily.

China’s retaliation has been swift and multifaceted:

  • Suspension of Japanese seafood imports, citing concerns over treated wastewater from Fukushima.
  • Travel warnings to Chinese citizens in Japan, while Tokyo has urged its nationals in China to exercise caution amid rising hostility.
  • Economic pressure on Japanese industries, with tourism and retail sectors already feeling the strain.

The dispute underscores China’s broader strategy of deterrence, using economic and diplomatic levers to dissuade foreign powers from supporting Taiwan. Analysts note that Beijing’s actions are not only aimed at Tokyo but also serve as a warning to Washington and other allies that interference in Taiwan is a “red line”.

Japan, meanwhile, faces a delicate balancing act. While its new prime minister has taken a firmer stance than her predecessors, Tokyo must weigh the risks of economic fallout against its security concerns. The spat highlights the fragility of regional ties and the growing likelihood that Taiwan’s fate could reshape Asia’s geopolitical order.


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