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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Bolsonaro Arrested in Brasília Before Supporters’ Vigil

 

A supporter of Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro holds a Brazilian flag, outside the Brazilian Federal Police Regional Headquarters, where Bolsonaro was taken after being placed in police custody as a preventative measure.


Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro was taken into federal police custody on Saturday, just days before he was set to begin serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup attempt following his 2022 election defeat. The arrest occurred in Brasília, where supporters had planned a vigil outside his residence.

Bolsonaro had been under house arrest since August, confined to his home while appealing a Supreme Court conviction. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversees the case, ordered the detention citing concerns that a gathering of supporters could obstruct police monitoring. Authorities also noted evidence of tampering with Bolsonaro’s electronic ankle bracelet, raising suspicions of a possible escape attempt.

The former president’s lawyer, Celso Vilardi, confirmed the detention but did not provide further details. Federal police reported that Bolsonaro underwent intake examinations after being transferred to their headquarters. The arrest marks the end of months of house arrest and intensifies political tensions in Brazil, where Bolsonaro’s supporters continue to call for amnesty for those convicted in connection with the January 8, 2023 riots.

Bolsonaro, who governed Brazil from 2019 to 2022, was convicted earlier this year of attempting to overturn the election results to block Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from taking office. His sentence of 27 years reflects the severity of the charges, including plotting to remain in power through undemocratic means.

The detention has sparked a storm on social media and mobilized rallies among his loyal base. Meanwhile, Brazil’s judiciary insists the arrest was necessary to prevent flight risk and ensure compliance with court rulings.


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