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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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Canada’s Labour Market Defies Expectations with Strong October Gains

 

Economists had expected the Canadian economy to drop 20,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate to rise to 7.2 per cent. 

Canada’s job market delivered an unexpected boost in October, adding 67,000 new positions and pushing the national unemployment rate down to 6.9%. This marks the first decline in unemployment in three months and comes as a surprise to many economists who had predicted job losses instead.

The gains were driven largely by part-time employment, which rose by more than 85,000 positions, offsetting earlier declines in the summer. The private sector also showed renewed strength, adding 73,000 jobs for its first increase since June. Ontario led the way with 55,000 new positions, while industries such as wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing saw the most significant growth.

Economists had expected the economy to shed around 20,000 jobs in October, with unemployment rising to 7.2%. Instead, the labour market surprised on the upside for the second consecutive month, following September’s gain of 60,000 jobs. Together, these back-to-back increases have helped offset the steep losses recorded in July and August.

The report also highlighted a positive trend for young workers, who saw improved employment opportunities after months of struggle. Analysts suggest that the stronger-than-expected labour market may ease concerns about an economic slowdown and could influence the Bank of Canada’s outlook on interest rates.

While the October surge is encouraging, experts caution that the reliance on part-time work may signal underlying fragility in the job market. Still, the data underscores Canada’s resilience in the face of global economic uncertainty.


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