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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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Carney Government Faces First Budget Confidence Test in Commons

 

            Prime Minister Mark Carney's budget needs two opposition MPs to either support or abstain it to pass.


The House of Commons is set to hold its first confidence vote tied to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s inaugural federal budget on Thursday evening. The vote will focus on a Conservative sub-amendment to a Bloc Québécois amendment, both of which challenge key elements of the government’s fiscal plan.

The Liberal government has declared the votes to be matters of confidence, meaning defeat could trigger a federal election. While the stakes are high, the government is expected to survive this initial test thanks to support from the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois, who have both signaled they will vote against the Conservative motion.

Interim NDP Leader Don Davies confirmed that his caucus of seven MPs will side with the Liberals, ensuring the defeat of the Conservative sub-amendment. However, Davies emphasized that this does not guarantee NDP support for the budget itself, which will face a separate confidence vote later this month.

The Conservative sub-amendment calls for scrapping Ottawa’s remaining climate pricing rules for industrial polluters and eliminating clean fuel regulations. The Bloc amendment, scheduled for a vote on Friday, criticizes the budget for failing to meet deficit reduction targets and for not including new oil and gas pipeline projects.

Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon reiterated that both votes are being treated as confidence matters. “If the government loses, it would amount to a loss of confidence in the House,” he said, underscoring the political weight of the proceedings.

For now, the Liberals appear secure in clearing the first hurdle, but two more confidence votes remain. With a minority government, Carney’s Liberals will need continued support from opposition parties to avoid a snap election.

The outcome of these votes will not only determine the survival of the government but also set the tone for how Carney’s first budget—framed as a response to global economic pressures—will shape Canada’s fiscal and political landscape in the months ahead.


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