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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...

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Carney Government Secures Crucial Budget Victory

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Minister of Finance and National Revenue Francois-Philippe Champagne applaud following a vote on the federal budget on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Monday, Nov. 17, 2025.

The Carney government has successfully survived a confidence vote on its federal budget, ensuring the administration remains in power and its fiscal plan moves forward. The vote, seen as a critical test of the government’s stability, passed after tense debate in Parliament, with opposition parties pressing hard against key spending measures.

By winning the confidence motion, Prime Minister Carney’s team has reinforced its mandate to implement economic policies aimed at growth and fiscal responsibility. Analysts suggest the outcome will provide short-term stability, though challenges remain as the government faces scrutiny over rising costs and long-term debt management.

The victory signals that, for now, the Carney government retains enough parliamentary support to continue governing, while setting the stage for further political battles over upcoming legislation.



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