Carney’s First Budget Sets Stage for High-Stakes Confidence Vote

Minister of Finance Francois-Philippe Champagne shakes hands with Prime Minister Mark Carney at the conclusion of his speech after tabling the federal budget in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada November 4, 2025.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority Liberal government has entered a critical phase after tabling its first federal budget, a document that could determine not only the country’s fiscal direction but also the government’s survival. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne unveiled the plan on November 4, outlining $126 billion in new spending alongside $60 billion in savings, resulting in a projected $78.3 billion deficit for the fiscal year.

The budget emphasizes what the Liberals call “generational investments” — measures aimed at strengthening Canada’s economic resilience amid global uncertainty, particularly trade tensions with the United States. Key proposals include tax incentives for corporate investment, targeted industrial spending, and cuts to the federal public service. While the government frames these moves as necessary to secure long-term prosperity, critics argue the plan falls short of the bold transformation Carney promised during the election campaign.

The political stakes are enormous. Because the Liberals hold only 169 seats — three short of a majority — the budget automatically doubles as a confidence vote. If it fails, Canadians could be heading back to the polls just months after the last election. The government’s chances improved slightly when Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals, narrowing the gap. Still, Carney will need either support or abstentions from opposition benches to avoid a holiday election.

The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, have already signaled opposition, citing the ballooning deficit. The Bloc Québécois has laid out six non-negotiable demands, while the NDP has yet to commit, leaving the outcome uncertain.

In the coming weeks, the House of Commons will debate the budget line by line, but the real drama lies in the looming confidence vote. For Carney, it is a defining test: either secure enough support to govern into 2026 or face the prospect of another bruising election campaign before year’s end.