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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...

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Kremlin Holds Back as US-Ukraine Peace Talks Progress

 

The Kremlin announced it will refrain from commenting until it sees how ongoing talks between the United States and Ukraine on a potential peace plan develop. The statement comes after Washington and Kyiv revealed they had drafted a “refined peace framework” following discussions in Geneva, aimed at addressing concerns over an earlier 28-point proposal that many of Ukraine’s allies criticized as overly favorable to Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Russia has not received any official information about the outcome of the Geneva talks, noting that Moscow is closely monitoring media reports but will wait for concrete details before responding. Russian President Vladimir Putin previously suggested that U.S. proposals could form the basis of a resolution, but warned that if Kyiv rejected them, Russian forces would push further.

The U.S.-Ukraine talks mark a significant moment in the search for an end to Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II. While both sides hailed progress, European allies remain cautious, stressing that major issues still need to be resolved. Ukraine has insisted that certain demands—such as recognition of occupied territories and restrictions on its defense capabilities—are non-negotiable.

For now, Moscow’s stance signals a wait-and-see approach, leaving the future of the peace framework uncertain. The coming days will reveal whether the refined plan can bridge the deep divides between Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow, or whether the war will continue to escalate.

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