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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Liberals Clear First Budget Confidence Hurdle in Ottawa


The minority Liberal government has successfully navigated its first major test on the 2025 federal budget, defeating a Conservative sub-amendment that sought to reject the fiscal plan. The vote, held Thursday evening in the House of Commons, ended with 198 MPs opposing the motion and 139 supporting it, ensuring the government’s survival in this initial confidence challenge.

The Conservative sub-amendment criticized the budget as failing to deliver affordability for Canadians. Had it passed, the measure could have triggered a federal election just months after the last one. However, the Liberals secured crucial backing from the NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Green Party MPs, who joined them in voting down the Conservative attempt.

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Prime Minister Mark Carney were seen applauding their caucus after the vote, signaling relief at clearing the first of three confidence hurdles tied to the budget. Interim NDP Leader Don Davies confirmed earlier in the day that his party’s seven MPs would side with the government, effectively removing suspense from the outcome.

Despite this victory, the Liberals remain under pressure. The next test comes Friday, when MPs will vote on a Bloc Québécois amendment opposing the budget. A defeat in that vote—or in the final budget vote later this month—would mean the government has lost the confidence of the House, potentially triggering another election.

The Liberals currently hold 170 of the 172 votes needed to pass the budget, bolstered by recent defections from Conservative MPs. Still, with only a slim margin separating them from defeat, the coming days will determine whether this survival marks the beginning of stability or merely a temporary reprieve.


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