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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Ontario Refers Skills Fund Audit to Police Amid Irregularities

David Piccini, Ontario Minister of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development speaks as Ontario Premier Doug Ford listens during a funding announcement in Hamilton, Ont., Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025.


The Ontario government has asked the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) to investigate a company that received millions from the province’s Skills Development Fund after a forensic audit uncovered financial irregularities.

A routine audit in 2023 flagged concerns with the company, prompting a deeper forensic review. The audit findings have now been forwarded to police for investigation. The company at the center of the probe, Keel Digital Solutions (also known as Keel Mind), had received more than $37 million in provincial funding to develop mental health support platforms, including initiatives aimed at assisting police services.

The Skills Development Fund, overseen by Labour Minister David Piccini, is a $2.5 billion program designed to support training and workforce development projects across Ontario. However, the fund has faced growing controversy in recent weeks over transparency and accountability in how grants are awarded.

Keel Digital Solutions has defended its record, stating that no “red flags” were raised during earlier reviews. Still, the government’s decision to involve the OPP underscores the seriousness of the concerns raised by auditors.

This development adds to mounting scrutiny of the Ford government’s handling of the Skills Development Fund, with critics demanding clearer oversight of taxpayer dollars. The OPP investigation will determine whether any criminal wrongdoing occurred in the administration or use of the funds.


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