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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Servicemen of the Spalah Unmanned Systems Battalion of the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attend a basic military exercise, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv region, Ukraine November 25, 2025.



The recently unveiled 28-point U.S. peace plan for Ukraine has ignited a storm of criticism after reports revealed it was largely based on a document originally drafted by Russia. The proposal was sent by Moscow to senior U.S. officials in October, shortly after President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington.

The plan includes provisions that mirror long-standing Russian demands, such as territorial concessions in eastern Ukraine and restrictions on Kyiv’s NATO ambitions. These terms have been widely rejected by Ukraine in past negotiations, fueling suspicions that the U.S.-backed framework amounts to a “peace without Ukraine” scenario.

Ukrainian officials, civil society groups, and international allies have denounced the proposal, arguing it undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. Critics say the plan pressures Kyiv into accepting Moscow’s terms while offering little in the way of guarantees against future aggression. The backlash has been swift, with many describing the blueprint as a Russian wish list repackaged as an American initiative.

The White House has avoided direct comment on the Russian origins of the plan, instead highlighting Trump’s optimism about progress. Meanwhile, European allies have drafted counterproposals, seeking to reassert Ukraine’s sovereignty and balance the framework with stronger security guarantees.

While U.S. and Ukrainian delegations have since discussed an “updated and refined peace framework,” skepticism remains high. For many in Kyiv and beyond, the revelation that Washington’s plan was rooted in a Kremlin submission has deepened doubts about its credibility and fairness.

The controversy underscores the fragile trust in international mediation efforts and highlights the difficulty of crafting a peace deal that does not tilt heavily in Russia’s favor. As negotiations continue, the central question remains: can a plan born from Moscow’s blueprint ever deliver a just and lasting peace for Ukraine?

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